In the letter dated Friday, Sudan’s Ministry of Energy and Petroleum alerted South Sudanese authorities that the risk of halting crude oil export operations is now “very high.” The ministry blamed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for recent drone attacks on key oil infrastructure, including a critical pump station and a major fuel depot located in government-held areas.
“These attacks have jeopardized operational stability and could lead to a full shutdown if they continue,” the ministry warned. Oil companies were instructed to draft emergency shutdown plans, signaling rising alarm within Khartoum.
The warning underscores the deepening crisis in Sudan, where a civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF has raged since April 2023, leaving tens of thousands dead and displacing more than 13 million people.
Economic Impact on South Sudan
The looming shutdown poses a significant threat to South Sudan’s economy, which relies heavily on oil exports for revenue. The country, which is landlocked, exports its crude through Sudan’s pipeline to Port Sudan in exchange for transit fees. Oil flow had only recently resumed after nearly a year-long disruption due to earlier fighting and pipeline damage.
Current reports estimate that South Sudan is exporting approximately 110,000 barrels per day. However, the latest developments could halt exports once again, putting the country’s already fragile economy at risk.
South Sudanese officials have yet to publicly respond to the letter or confirm the potential fallout.
Political Tensions Mount in Juba
The crisis comes amid growing political instability in South Sudan, particularly following the March arrest of Oil Minister Puot Kang Chuol, a key ally of detained First Vice President Riek Machar. The arrest has further deepened the rift between President Salva Kiir and Machar, placing additional strain on the Revitalized Peace Agreement signed in 2018.
Last week, activist Edmund Yakani urged the government in Juba to provide transparency regarding the attacks and their impact on the oil industry. “The people of South Sudan need to know what is happening to their crude oil,” Yakani said.
Regional Implications
Any disruption to oil exports will not only damage South Sudan’s economy, which depends on oil for more than 90% of its budget, but could also ripple across East Africa, compounding the region’s humanitarian and security challenges.
With Sudan’s internal war showing no signs of resolution, the prospect of another oil blockade is now a pressing threat — one that may further destabilize both nations and derail any progress made toward peace.
