What Happens After Kiir?

Whether the rumors are true today or just a glimpse into an inevitable future, the silence surrounding succession is troubling. South Sudan, more than ever, must confront this question head-on: Who leads the country after Kiir? And how?

Is There a Succession Plan?

Unlike many stable governments that prepare for sudden power transitions, South Sudan has no clear public succession framework beyond the constitution, which states that the First Vice President should assume power temporarily in the event of the President’s death or incapacitation. Currently, that person is Dr. Riek Machar—a name that sparks both hope and deep fear depending on which side of the ethnic and political divide you’re on.

Would Machar be accepted peacefully by the army, the elites in J1, and the public? Or would his ascension trigger a fresh round of internal conflict and ethnic reprisals?

The Possible Successors

If Kiir is truly gone—or steps aside—here are a few names quietly being mentioned in political circles:

1. Dr. Riek Machar – Constitutionally next in line. A polarizing figure with deep support among many Nuer but viewed as a threat by the Dinka establishment.
2. Benjamin Bol Mel – Current Vice President for the Economic Cluster. A powerful behind-the-scenes actor with significant business interests and strong military relationships. Many fear he seeks to consolidate power by weakening rivals.
3. Tut Gatluak Manime – Presidential Security Advisor. Known for his role in peace negotiations and control over the security sector.
4. James Wani Igga – A long-time ally of Kiir, seen as loyal but politically weak and unlikely to lead in a crisis.
5. Akol Koor Kuc – Head of National Security. Not a politician, but with enough leverage to influence or even block a successor.
6. An SPLM Military Council? – Some speculate that senior army officers could intervene to form a transitional military council—either to block Machar or manage the transition from behind the scenes.

What Are the Scenarios?

South Sudan could take one of three broad paths:

1. Constitutional Transition – The First Vice President takes over, elections are scheduled, and the country attempts a legal handover. But given the history between Kiir and Machar, can this truly happen peacefully?
2. Backroom Deal or Military Intervention – Power is handed to someone else via elite negotiations or force, bypassing the constitution altogether. This would likely trigger unrest from those feeling sidelined.
3. National Crisis – Competing factions claim legitimacy, the army splits, and the country plunges into another civil war.

Each option is heavy with risk. None come with guarantees. But the truth is: South Sudan is unprepared for what comes after Kiir.

Will Ethnic Tensions Explode Again?

The elephant in the room is ethnicity. Kiir is a Dinka from Warrap, and his death will unsettle a delicate balance of power. Many Nuer feel excluded from economic and political life under his leadership, and any transition will reopen old wounds.

Will a Nuer successor be accepted by the Dinka establishment? Will the army—dominated by Kiir loyalists—hand over power peacefully to someone they once fought against?

Or worse: Will certain factions attempt an ethnic purge to secure the throne?

Time for the People to Ask Themselves

The people of South Sudan must now ask hard questions:

• Do we want peace or more bloodshed?
• Are we ready to accept whoever the constitution appoints?
• Will we let tribalism guide our future again—or can we mature beyond it?
• Should we demand an interim council that includes all major communities until elections can be held?
• Can we finally build a system that outlives any one man?

The Real Crisis Is Silence

In the end, the biggest danger is not Kiir’s death — it’s the lack of public discourse about what comes after. A nation of 12 million cannot depend on one man forever. South Sudan must begin the uncomfortable but necessary conversation about its future leadership — before chaos decides for us.